Published: 2021-05-29

Forecastability Measures that Describe the Complexity of a Site for Deep Learning Wind Predictions

Jaume Manero, Javier Béjar

Abstract


The application of deep learning to wind time series for multi-step prediction obtains good results at short horizons. The accuracy of a wind forecast is highly dependent on the specific structure of wind in the specific location, as many local features influence wind behaviour. The characterization of the complexity of a site for wind prediction is defined as forecastability or predictability and can be obtained from the inner structure of the meteorological time series observations from a site. We analyze the time series structure searching for properties that have a high correlation with the prediction result, properties that can create measures that have the potential to describe the forecastability of a site. The best measures will show a high correlation with the accuracy of the predictions. In this work, we analyze wind time series from 126,692 wind locations in the US, where we apply several deep learning methods first, and then we verify several forecastability descriptors with the accuracy deep learning results. We require High-Performance Computing (HPC) resources for this task as the deep learning algorithms have sensible resource requirements and are applied to a large set of data. The measures defined and explored in this work are based on several techniques that decompose or transform the wind time-series. By combining several of these measures, we can obtain better predictors of the site complexity, which will allow us to evaluate the future error of a prediction on this site. Forecastability measures can contribute to a wind site multi-dimensional description, becoming a valuable tool for wind resource analysts and wind forecasters.


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References


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